No matter what happened last year, maybe you won a fortune, maybe you lost your shirt in the first week, finding “overlays” has been and will always be the key to making a profit over a sixteen game regular season schedule in the NFL. If you have ever been to a 사설토토사이트 you would know how this works.
NFL betting, since the free agency era began in earnest, around the time the early 1990’s Dallas Cowboys fell on hard times, has become one of the most difficult wagering propositions in all of sports. Even though teams routinely change year in and year out, the rules regarding NFL wagering hasn’t.
Thoroughbred racing has always offered competitive odds. Baseball wagers can still be keyed around pitching. College football has about six or seven teams who routinely do well year in and year out. NASCAR is dominated by a few drivers and you rarely see less than 3 to 1 on any one driver.
The NFL? The NFL seems to change year in and year out but the “vig”, the 10% percent all of us pay in order to wager on games, has remained a staple for years.
Without finding overlays, the vig, some times referred to as the “juice”, will kill any hopes of profit over an entire season. That’s 10% percent off the top which means to make a profit; you really want to hit over 60% of your wagers.
That’s impossible to do unless you have some sort of system which accounts for wins and losses. Horse racing handicappers refer to this as knowing when to place a “saver” bet and when not to and finding the best overlay in the field. Systems in horse racing are not blind and instead are based on money management in which the handicapper takes a look at the amount of money he can afford to lose on any one given bet. How many “units” to play on any one race revolves around the understanding of what constitutes an “underlay” and what constitutes an “overlay”. Overlays and underlays determine not only how much to bet but which wagers to make.
How this translates to NFL wagering depends on your own philosophical belief system. Some true NFL handicappers believe that the only way to make money wagering on NFL games is to stick to a blind money management system – – “Never wager more than 5% of your bankroll. Never wager on parlays. Teasers will kill you every time.”
There is absolutely some validity to these statements. However, I purport that like all wagering, the real success to NFL wagering is a combination of money management and finding overlays. Overlays will always be the key to making money in any wagering proposition no matter what you are wagering on.
The key then is to define the definition of an overlay. In horse racing, it is quite easy. Overlays are horses that are going off at higher odds than you expected them to go off at. So, if you like horse #4 and the odds on him are 6 to 1 but you expected the horse to be going off at 3 to 1 then horse #4 is an overlay. He’s a good bet at 6 to 1. Not such a good bet at 3 to 1.
How does this work in the NFL with betting lines which force all teams to go off at “even” money? In NFL wagering you have to create overlays. This means using teasers and parlays to create higher pay-outs for any one given bet.
Betus.com has a terrific pay-out schedule that can help the astute NFL handicapper create overlays. For instance, let’s say that you have assigned $100 dollars to bet on four separate games the first week of the NFL season. Here are the four games you are targeting:
Game 1: Houston Texans (pk) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Game 3: Carolina Panthers (pk) vs. St. Louis Rams
Game 4: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers.
If you bet $100 on each game, and hit 3 out of 4, which is difficult to do, then you would get back $90 in profit on each one of the win bets and you would have lost a total of $100 on the loser. Your total profit, then, would be $270 – $100 = $170. You also get back your initial investment of $300 dollars on the winning bets.
Not a horrible weekend, but check out what happens when you create overlays:
Let’s say you use the same four teams, but instead of wagering $100 on each team, you decide to only wager $100 on one bet – – a four team parlay which you call a “home-run” wager and $200 on a four team teaser bet which you call a “saver” wager. See what happens.
If you hit your four team parlay, then you get back 11 to 1. That would be a profit margin of $1000 which equates to $1100 – $100 = $1000. That a much larger profit margin.
If you didn’t hit your parlay but instead hit your saver bet, a 6-point teaser bet with four teams, then your profit margin would be $600 (3 to 1) – $200 = $400. The profit margin is higher and you saved $100 by not wagering it at all!
Is it difficult to do? Absolutely it is! But by creating overlays you can save some of your bankroll and will win a higher amount of money on any single wager. By saving some of your bankroll each week and by making a hither profit margin on the wagers you do win, you can lower the amount of wagers that you have to hit in order to show a profit for the season.
