Betting on sports is perhaps the simplest and most exciting form of gambling. To play you pick a team you think will win a sporting event, that’s all there is to it. But what a lot of people don’t realize is that the casino has no advantage over the player in this form of gambling, though this is not true with 토토사이트 as this platform offers plenty of offers and bonuses to new and existing players. That means over the long term you, the customer, can have a positive expectation.
I know what you’re thinking. Why would the casino offer a game which they stand to lose against their customers? There is a simple mathematical explanation but first, you have to know the players.
There are 3 key people in the sports betting formula; the public, the wise guy, and the bookie.
The Public:
The public is the mass market, the recreational player who plunks $50 – $100 a week on Sunday to support his hometown team. We all know him; he will support his team through thick and thin. The public is predictable. They like to bet on favorites, they like to support their teams (the local pro teams and don’t forget their alma matter), and they really like to bet on nationally televised games – especially Monday Night Football. The public is playing for entertainment and they are usually satisfied to simply have some action, they are happy if they win or lose. Without the public, the sports betting markets would likely close. We will see why later.
The Wise Guy:
The name says it all. They are the real-life versions of Robert Deniro’s character in Casino. These are the professional sports bettors. The wise guys are watching the team’s performance and form closely, all the teams, not just the media darlings and the hometown team. The ‘sharps’ as they are also known, wait for situations where they believe the public will be wrong and interestingly enough these are plenty.
Wiseguys not only take into consideration recent stats but historical data, a team’s motivation, injuries, and bench player’s capabilities. The wise guy is betting for profit, his intention is to remove any emotions or attachment to the teams and determine the most likely outcome based on what he knows. The wise guy often likes the underdogs and takes positions against popular opinion.
The Bookie:
The bookie, the house, the sportsbook, the casino, whatever you call it, they are the guys that facilitate all the action. Without the bookie most sports bets would likely never be transacted and here is why let’s look at an NFL game where the Denver Broncos are playing Kansas City Chiefs. A Broncos fan will have a hard time making a bet in Denver, where a large percentage of people support the Broncos, and also want to make a bet in their favor. A Chiefs fan will face the same problem in Kansas City. It is only through the bookie, or betting broker, that fans in both cities can have their money put up against one another without ever meeting each other. So there you have it, a bookie is merely a middle man passing winning and losing bets between gamblers.
Sports Book Revenue:
Ideally, a well-managed sportsbook will rarely be exposed to one side; instead, they hope to have action divided equally between both outcomes, and when they are finished collecting from the losers and paying the winners there is a small percentage left over for them. This is what insiders call ‘the juice’ or ‘the vig’, it is simply the commission they receive on the total money wagered between players. All bets have a commission factored in; it is standard in US handicap betting to see what we call 11/10 lines. This means that in order to win $10 the player must risk $11. When a sportsbook has balanced action on two sides they stand to make 4.5% of all money bet with them.
Refer to the example below:
Player A wants to bet $110 to win $100 on the Denver Broncos. Player B wants to bet $110 to win $100 on the KC Chiefs. Both give their money to the sportsbook to hold until the outcome is determined. The sportsbook now has $220 in escrow. The Denver Broncos win so: Player B will lose $110. Player A will receive his $110 bet back PLUS the $100 he gets for winning. The sportsbook has paid $210 back to Player A, but remember he had $220. He has just turned a $10 profit with no risk. Total turnover or money wagered was $220 and the profit was $10. If we apply a simple ROI equation we see: $10 / $220 = .045 or 4.5% ROI.
This is what many people, even long-term bettors never understand. The sportsbooks are not concerned with people winning or losing, they only want balanced action to maintain low volatility and secure a constant stream of revenue.
Remember we mentioned the public and the wise guys often had differing opinions? It is this ‘split’ in the market’s opinion that prevents the sportsbook from having to expose themselves to risk and keeps action balanced ensuring their 4.5% margin.
In a nutshell, this is why betting on sports is more of a calculated risk than truly gambling, if someone is willing to put in just a few hours a week of research and preparation before game time this can be a fun and profitable pastime.
